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Today, the EUR/USD pair attempted to continue its upward movement, but so far without success, as the U.S. dollar's pullback stalled following a Bloomberg report indicating that the end of the U.S. government shutdown is approaching.
A group of centrist Democrats in the Senate reached an agreement to support the resumption of government operations and fund key departments and agencies for the upcoming year. The agreement ensures that federal employees will be paid and allows states to resume previously delayed transfers. Some departments will receive funding through January 30, while others will be funded for the entire upcoming fiscal year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that the negative economic impact of the temporary government shutdown continues to diminish. He also noted significant progress in combating inflation, as a result of which prices are expected to decline in the coming months.
On Friday, the dollar weakened further after the release of the consumer sentiment index, which in November fell to 50.3, its lowest level since June 2022, compared to 53.6 in October and below expectations of 53.2. Today, following the Bloomberg report, the dollar halted its retreat from its November high and the price levels last seen in August.
Nevertheless, the euro may begin to recover against the dollar, as the divergence in policy outlooks between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve creates a favorable environment for the euro. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged in the coming months, while the probability of a rate cut by September 2026 has fallen to 45%, significantly lower than 80% in October.
Some ECB officials have stressed the importance of maintaining tools for a flexible monetary policy. In particular, Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized the need to preserve the capacity for future policy responses. Joachim Nagel highlighted the importance of remaining vigilant regarding high inflation. Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that any signs of inflation falling below 2% in the near term are likely to be temporary.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain negative, indicating that bulls currently lack the strength to challenge the bears. The nearest resistance the pair must overcome lies at the 14-day EMA, around 1.1569, with the next resistance at 1.1590, where the 21-day SMA passes. If these levels are broken, prices may reach the psychological mark of 1.1600.
The pair has found support at 1.1540; if this level fails to hold, prices may accelerate their decline toward the psychological level of 1.1500.
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