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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 1.55%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.69%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.44%.
Shares of technology companies contributed to the growth of global stock indices as traders began a data-heavy week with significant optimism regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased to 4.03%. Oil prices rose as traders considered the prospects of a peaceful agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
As I mentioned earlier, investor optimism was fueled by expectations that slowing inflation would allow the Federal Reserve to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy. The technology sector experienced particularly strong growth. Shares of giants like Google showed significant increases as rumors circulated that the company could become a new leader in the AI space.
The oil market reacted with gains to news of a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Traders believe this could lead to a reduction in geopolitical tensions and stabilize oil supplies. However, some experts caution against excessive optimism, noting that negotiations between the parties remain complex and the outcome is uncertain.
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Christopher Waller expressed support for a rate cut next month. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams similarly influenced the market on Friday, stating that a short-term rate cut remains a possibility. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also endorsed a rate cut in December.
Currently, money markets are pricing in more than a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, despite that this likelihood had fluctuated around 30% in recent weeks.
"We believe that the combination of a stock market reset and increased odds of a rate cut in December has driven stocks higher and once again raised questions about the likelihood of a year-end downturn," stated Susquehanna International Group.
According to Susquehanna International Group, the combination of a stock market reset and increased odds of a rate cut in December has driven stocks higher and has once again raised questions about the likelihood of a year-end downturn.
Today's macroeconomic calendar includes retail sales data for September, which may show moderate growth, as consumers remain pressured by high prices. Also, traders will receive data on the producer price index and durable goods orders for September.
Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,697. This would help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,711. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,727, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,682. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,672 and open the way to $6,660.
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