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The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Wednesday after a slight pullback within the local upward trend. It is important to remember that a key technical point remains the flat on the daily timeframe between 1.1400 and 1.1830, which has persisted for five months. After the price reversal near the lower boundary of this sideways channel, a rise toward the upper boundary could be expected purely on technical grounds. Moreover, given that the dollar has not corrected properly against the euro over the past five months and given the fundamental background, any rise in the pair at this point is justified. Yesterday, the most significant macroeconomic data was published in the U.S., with the pivotal ADP report showing a disastrous figure of -32,000 jobs in the private sector. Other reports (ISM business activity index and industrial production) were slightly better; however, the Federal Reserve will hold its last meeting of the year on December 10, making the labor market data particularly significant. Reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate will not be published before the Fed meeting, meaning the central bank will have to rely on the ADP report, which, as we can see, turned out poorly.
On the 5-minute timeframe, a single buy trading signal was formed during the day. The pair broke through the 1.1655-1.1666 range during the U.S. trading session, allowing beginner traders to open long positions. However, after breaking through the indicated area, the movement essentially stalled. Nonetheless, movement might continue today in the event of a rebound from this area.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the U.S. dollar; therefore, we expect further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat on the daily timeframe persists, suggesting a reasonable expectation of growth toward the upper boundary after a price reversal around the lower boundary.
On Thursday, beginner traders may again look to trade from the area of 1.1655-1.1666. A bounce in price from this area will enable opening long positions, with targets set at 1.1745-1.1754. A consolidation below this area will indicate short positions with targets at 1.1584-1.1591.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Thursday, a retail sales report is planned for the Eurozone, while in the U.S., unemployment claims will be released. Both reports are secondary; hence, they are unlikely to provoke a strong market reaction. Today, beginner traders should pay more attention to technical factors.
Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.
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