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At the end of the week, the Japanese yen attempted to maintain its bullish stance, but profit-taking ahead of the weekend prompted a slight rise in USD/JPY. However, reports released this week by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs indicate that household spending in October 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. This result fell short of market expectations for a 1.0% increase and completely offset the 1.8% growth from the previous month. This marked the first decrease since April and the fastest decline since January 2024, raising new concerns about economic development.
Despite this, the Japanese yen tried to hold its ground in the USD/JPY pair, supported by potential further steps towards tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that the decision to raise the key interest rate will be weighed against all the "pros" and "cons" at the upcoming December 18–19 meeting. Such comments are seen as a clear preparation for monetary policy tightening to strengthen the yen.
Additionally, Prime Minister Sanae Takichi's substantial spending plan, financed through the issuance of new bonds, has been a key factor in the recent significant rise in government bond yields over the past month. Specifically, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds has reached its highest levels since 2007, while 20-year bonds reached levels not seen since the late 1990s.
Moreover, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a record high, leading to a further narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies. This increases the risk of speculative operations and additionally supports the yen's strengthening. However, the rise in bond yields is accompanied by an increase in borrowing costs, which raises concerns about the government budget and restrains the growth of the national currency.
As for the US dollar, by the end of the week, it showed a moderate recovery after six weeks of decline, aided by two positive labor market reports. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned job cuts in November decreased by 53% to 71,321, compared with 153,074 the previous month, marking the highest October figure since 2003. Additionally, the US Department of Labor reported a decrease in jobless claims by 27,000 to 191,000 for the week ending November 29. This figure marked a low for more than three years, easing concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market and prompting partial closure of short positions on the dollar.
Despite these optimistic reports, the dollar struggles to keep rising amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its next meeting. This limits the possibilities for further strengthening of the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent failures to surpass the 100-hour SMA favor the bears. However, on Friday, the pair attempted to break above the 100-hour SMA but stalled just short of it. The oscillators on this chart are positive. Therefore, any further intraday decline may find support near the 50-hour SMA, ahead of the round level at 155.00. On the other hand, any attempt at a significant recovery will encounter a strong barrier around 155.40 or the 100-hour SMA. A prolonged strengthening above this level will trigger the closure of short positions, allowing the USD/JPY pair to reach the round level of 156.00 and higher. Additionally, it's worth noting that the oscillators on the daily chart are also positive.
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