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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish, almost sideways downward movement on Tuesday. Market volatility has been weak in recent months, and over the last five days, movements have been virtually non-existent. This may be related to the upcoming FOMC meeting, as the market is reluctant to take on risk beforehand, unsure which monetary policy path the central bank will choose in the near term. Alternatively, it could simply be a result of the flat on the daily timeframe that has been ongoing for the sixth consecutive month. It is worth recalling that in September and October, there were no questions regarding monetary policy from the FOMC. Traders understood that the Federal Reserve would be forced to lower the key interest rate to support the labor market. However, during these two months, the US dollar reacted calmly to the easing of policy and even appreciated, which we still consider illogical. Therefore, this evening, we may also observe completely illogical movements. We would not be surprised if the dollar shows growth on a "dovish" FOMC decision this evening.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal to sell was formed yesterday. This signal, in the form of a bounce from the area of 1.1655-1.1666, was created during the European trading session. As a result, the price moved down about 25 pips, allowing for a small profit on this signal. At present, however, expecting large profits is unrealistic given the minimal market volatility.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, although the price has overcome the trend line. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the US dollar; thus, we anticipate further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat on the daily timeframe persists, and after a reversal near the lower boundary, it is reasonable to expect a rise to the upper boundary.
On Wednesday, beginner traders can again trade from the area of 1.1655-1.1666, as the price has been near this level for five consecutive days. A price bounce from this area below will allow for short positions with a target of 1.1584-1.1591. A consolidation above it will signal a long position targeting 1.1745.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Wednesday, no interesting events or reports are scheduled in the EU, while the results of the last FOMC meeting of the year will be announced in the US.
Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.
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