16.12.202500:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Did the Supreme Court Overturn Trump's Tariffs?

Donald Trump's tariffs, which he gradually introduced throughout the year, were challenged by various parties almost immediately. What does it mean to challenge them? Disputing the president of the world's largest economy is not easy. Initially, 12 state governors filed a lawsuit to overturn all tariffs. It's worth noting that the US president initiated a trade war based on a 1977 emergency law. Under this law, Trump declared a state of emergency in trade and began imposing tariffs on half of the countries in the world. However, there is not a single word in this law about the possibility of imposing tariffs on imports or the circumstances under which such radical measures can be used. To be frank, this law is extremely vague and has never been used by any president before. The lack of specifics appealed to Trump, as it allows for a broad interpretation of the law.

There are no direct prohibitions on imposing tariffs in the law, but there are no explicit permissions either. The situation has become unusual and legally complex. A lawsuit was first filed in the US Court of International Trade. The trade court examined the case for about a month and ruled that the tariffs were illegal. However, Trump's team immediately appealed, so the examination of the case regarding the president's overreach of authority moved to another building, the Appeals Court.

The Appeals Court also held hearings and ruled that the tariffs were illegal. Trump did not despair and appealed to the US Supreme Court. The Supreme Court consists of nine justices, six of whom were appointed by Republican presidents. It seemed like a done deal, but the Supreme Court also ruled that the law from 1977 contains not a single word about "tariffs." Accordingly, Trump could not rely on this legislative act to impose global tariffs. However, there is no official court ruling yet, although a session was scheduled for early November. Now it is mid-December, and the issue of overturning Trump's tariffs is still up in the air. Why it remains unresolved is unclear. In my opinion, the situation is as clear as day.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current trend segment may reach the 25 figure. The current upward wave structure is beginning to develop, and it is hoped that we are now witnessing the construction of an impulsive wave set that is part of a global wave 5. Therefore, we should expect growth up to the 25 figure, as I mentioned earlier.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has evolved. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C at 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume construction, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I anticipated the formation of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c continues to form, and the current wave set is beginning to take on an impulsive form. Consequently, one can expect price increases to continue, with targets around 1.3580 and 1.3630.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to replay and often carry changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective orders, such as stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.