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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair once again bounced off the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718, posted a modest rise, and then returned to this level. I had expected a more confident move during the day given the news background. However, traders found nothing particularly important for themselves in the ECB and Bank of England meetings, nor in the U.S. inflation report. Today, another rebound from the 1.1718 level would again work in favor of the European currency and a modest rise toward the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802. A firm consolidation of the pair below 1.1718 would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave broke the prior peak. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls have regained confidence and begun attacking with renewed vigor. The easing of the Fed's monetary policy supports further growth of the euro, and the ECB will not create any problems for the single currency in the near future.
As already noted, Thursday's news background was abundant for both the dollar and the euro. It is not the EUR/USD pair's fault that traders found no grounds for active trading. The ECB made no important decisions, did not announce changes to monetary policy at the start of 2026, and is generally satisfied with economic indicators. The inflation report showed a rather weak reading, which undoubtedly pleased one well-known person in the White House. Donald Trump can now claim that he was right about inflation. The consumer price index in the U.S. is slowing, and Trump's trade war has not led to strong and sustained price growth. However, many economists point out the inaccuracy of the November report. The U.S. Bureau of Statistics was unable to collect data for October, and in November various holiday sales began, so prices were artificially depressed. The inflation figure reacted to this temporary price decline and therefore cannot be considered fully representative. As a result, the market did not rush to conclusions about new FOMC monetary easing in January, and the FOMC itself will receive another inflation report before its next meeting, which should more accurately reflect the price situation in the U.S.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after the formation of a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator. Thus, the decline may continue for some time toward the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound of quotes from this level would favor the European currency and a resumption of growth toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.1829.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 8,041 long positions and closed 17,377 short positions. COT reports have resumed publication after the shutdown, but the data being released are still outdated—covering October and November. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 243 thousand, while short positions amount to 145 thousand.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been shedding short positions and building up longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they could cause numerous problems of a long-term and structural nature for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and amid Jerome Powell's expected resignation in May next year.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On December 19, the economic calendar contains three entries of little interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be very weak.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling positions are possible if prices consolidate below the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1656. Buy positions can be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level, with a target of 1.1795–1.1802.
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