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The test of the price at 1.1705 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.
Weak data from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index put pressure on the dollar on Friday afternoon. However, the decline in the consumer sentiment index, which reflects households' concerns about the current state of the economy and prospects, did not prompt analysts to revise their short-term economic growth forecasts for the U.S. Therefore, the influence of this factor on the currency market was limited.
Today, due to a lack of economic data from the Eurozone, significant market fluctuations are not expected in the first half of the day. Traders' interest will likely shift to other factors, such as the geopolitical context. In the absence of important economic news from the Eurozone, external factors may dominate investor sentiment and set the tone for short-term volatility in EUR/USD.
In terms of intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1726 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1749. At approximately 1.1749, I intend to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected following positive news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1712 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels of 1.1726 and 1.1749 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro today once the price reaches 1.1712 (red line on the chart). The target for this sale will be 1.1688, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from the level. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1726 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 1.1712 and 1.1688 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions cautiously. It is advisable to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as in the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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