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The American news backdrop next week will again determine the fate of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments. Analysis should begin with Saturday's invasion of Venezuelan territory by U.S. military forces, which ended with the capture of the country's president, Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is currently held at one of the American military bases and will soon be transferred to the United States for trial. Therefore, Monday may open with a gap on the FX market, and then traders' attention will shift to the more familiar economic backdrop — namely, the American, not the European or British.
The first week of any month is when the market adjusts its expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. During this period, labor market and unemployment statistics are released, which allow forecasting the U.S. central bank's future actions. I remind you that market participants currently expect further Fed easing but do not expect a new round of rate cuts at the meeting at the end of January. This is because Jerome Powell, at the last meeting, indicated the FOMC's intention to pause to understand how the steps already taken will affect economic processes.
The Fed has not abandoned further easing, but needs more time to analyze the data and the extent of the impact on unemployment and the labor market. Therefore, one can say that the decision on the rate at the next meeting is already made. However, I would not draw such conclusions without knowing how many new jobs were created in December and how the unemployment rate changed.
I remind you that a month earlier, economists expected unemployment to be at 4.4%, but it jumped to 4.6%. Nonfarm Payrolls in November were higher than market expectations, but it cannot be called unequivocally positive. In addition to Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment, ISM business activity indexes for manufacturing and services, the ADP report, the JOLTS job openings report, and the consumer sentiment index will also be released in the U.S., and these can also influence market sentiment.
Based on all of the above, it is still too early to write off a Fed rate cut in January. It is premature to draw conclusions about the state of the labor market. Expecting a strong rally in the dollar on the basis of current considerations is pointless.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. Targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25th figure. The current upward wave set may not be complete, but three waves have been constructed. If it develops further, one should expect growth with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, which correspond to 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci. But in the near term, a corrective wave or a set of waves may be forming.
The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If that is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c has presumably completed its formation, so in the near term, a downward wave or a set of waves may be observed.
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