05.01.202608:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: simple trading tips for beginner traders on January 5. Review of yesterday's forex trades

Trade review and tips for trading the euro currency

The price test at 1.1750 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

After U.S. intervention in Venezuela's political affairs and the capture of its president, the U.S. currency very quickly rose, and risk assets fell. Investors alarmed by the unstable geopolitical situation began allocating funds to the dollar, a traditionally reliable asset. And although military actions in Venezuela did not drive up oil prices, this increased uncertainty about future U.S. policy toward other oil-producing countries.

Since no economic data for the eurozone are expected in the first half of the day, a further decline of the euro against the dollar is likely. In the absence of macro releases that usually influence FX trading, market participants rely on existing external factors, and the current instability and unpredictability create conditions for the dollar to strengthen as a safe-haven asset. One should not forget the influence of technical factors on EUR/USD dynamics. A breakout of important support levels can trigger additional euro weakness.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: today, one can buy the euro at around 1.1697 (green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 1.1723. At 1.1723, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. Expect euro growth only as part of a minor correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and only beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the 1.1680 price is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels 1.1697 and 1.1723.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1680 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Pressure on the pair may already be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and only just beginning to fall.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of 1.1697 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels 1.1680 and 1.1655.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument;
• Thick green line — estimated price where you can place Take Profit or personally lock in profit, since further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument;
• Thick red line — estimated price where you can place Take Profit or personally lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.