15.01.202604:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. January 15. The market is oscillating between the 14 and 18 levels

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move on Wednesday in a way that makes you want to do only one thing — shoot yourself. Volatility again fell to "below the floorboard" levels, and the market has already... ignored all the most important events and reports of 2026. Yes, ignored — because a 20-pip move after the US inflation report is not a reaction. A 40-pip move on NFP and US unemployment reports is not a reaction. A 30-pip move after criminal proceedings were initiated against Powell is not a reaction. Similar moves were shown after Trump's military operation in Venezuela (admit it, not an everyday event), after bellicose threats regarding Greenland, Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, and Iran. In fact, the market only pretends to react. In reality, the price has been between 1.1400 and 1.1830 for seven months straight.

What explains such market passivity? In our view, the pause has indeed stretched out, but one should remember that market makers rule the market — large commercial banks, central banks, multinational corporations, and so on. Those are the traders whose trades amount to billions of dollars. Only they can move the exchange rate. If, for some reason, the big players do not see reasons to sell or buy, the price will not move.

There can be many reasons why big players do not want to buy or sell. Start with global uncertainty. Nobody in the world now understands whether Donald Trump is prepared to carry out his plans to seize Greenland or a military coup in Cuba. His words about "help already on the way" to Iranian protesters are also hard to interpret. Remember, we live in the 21st century, and if "help were already on the way," the whole world would already know about it.

Since investors do not know what to expect from Trump and what the consequences of his actions will be, it is quite possible that no one wants to take unnecessary risks. There is also a much more mundane version of what is happening in the market. Market makers have been forming new positions in anticipation of a new trend for seven months in a row. We understand this sounds a bit absurd, since positions can be built in much less time, but we are talking about large banks. We certainly will not tell them how long to form their positions. A flat has no clear time limits. Like a trend, it can last as long as it likes.

Also note that if the dollar were confidently rising now, we would call such a move illogical, because the fundamental backdrop remains sharply the opposite. But that is the point — there are no movements in the market. Therefore, we believe one should not try to explain what does not require explanation. The market is currently not reacting to anything — period.

Average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of January 15 is 46 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1605 and 1.1697 on Thursday. The higher linear regression channel is directed upward, but the daily TF is still flat. The CCI indicator recently formed another "bullish" divergence, which again points to a resumption of the uptrend. However, the key point remains the flat on the daily TF.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1597

S2 – 1.1536

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1658

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair remains below the moving average, but on all higher timeframes the uptrend is preserved, and on the daily TF the flat continues for the sixth month in a row. The global fundamental background still matters greatly to the market, and it remains negative for the dollar. Over the past six months, the dollar has occasionally shown weak gains, but exclusively within the sideways channel. It has no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening. With the price below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with a target of 1.1597 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant, with a target of 1.1830 (the upper line of the daily TF flat), which has already been tested and not overcome.

Explanations of the illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should proceed.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will trade over the next 24 hours based on current volatility.
• CCI indicator — its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) signals an approaching trend reversal.