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Markets opened without clarity after the US Supreme Court again declined to rule on President Donald Trump's tariff measures, keeping uncertainty alive and complicating trading strategies. Investors remain focused on court outcomes, which makes global market forecasts more difficult.
At the same time, the US has tightened immigration controls and temporarily suspended visa issuance for citizens of 75 countries. For the first time in 50 years, the country has seen a net outflow of migrants, a development that has already dented consumer spending and raised concerns about future economic growth. Follow the link for more details.
Tech names came under heavy selling, weiged down by tougher export rules for AI chips (notably NVIDIA's sales to China) and new AI consumer restrictions in Florida. That pressure knocked the Nasdaq lower and led to a two?day pullback in the S&P 500. Small?cap strength is leading the market: the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P for nine consecutive days. Big tech is losing its safe-haven status.
US macroeconomic data and corporate earnings expectations are not supporting a broad market rally: retail sales are rising and inflation is easing slightly, but investors view corporate forecasts as stretched. The Fed is in a wait?and?see mode and is not expected to ease policy before summer, leaving the S&P 500 effectively without a policy cushion. Follow the link for more details.
The US dollar has strengthened on solid macro prints: retail sales for November beat expectations, and the producer price index showed renewed increases. Market attention now shifts to fresh labor data and upcoming Fed speeches that could clarify the rate path.
Despite solid data and Fed commentary pointing to a low near?term probability of rate cuts (the market puts January odds at roughly 5%), futures still price in at least two cuts over the year. Follow the link for more details.
US equity markets are showing signs of instability, so investors should keep risk management front of mind. Despite recent weakness, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains in an uptrend and sits above key support levels, while the Fear & Greed index signals rising appetite for risk.
A break above today's DJIA high would open the way for further upside and additional long positions. Conversely, a renewed downside correction with a break below the 49,075 support level would be a short?term sell signal. Follow the link for more details.
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