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Yesterday, equity indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.55%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.91%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.63%.
Asian equity indices reached record highs, and the dollar resumed losses as investors favored assets outside the US amid policy unpredictability and geopolitical risk. Precious metals also hit new all?time highs. This dynamic reflects growing concern about the stability of the US economy and the political backdrop, prompting market participants to seek more reliable and promising investment destinations.
In particular, the rise in Asian markets is driven not only by capital reallocation but also by solid regional economic growth supported by government measures. China, India, and Southeast Asian countries are showing impressive expansion, attracting international investors' attention. The dollar's decline, in turn, reflects weakening confidence in Federal Reserve policy and worries about rising US public debt. Geopolitical risks, including the prospect of renewed trade wars, are also contributing to capital outflows from dollar assets.
Today, the FX market was in focus after China's central bank set the daily reference yuan rate above the closely watched level of 7 per dollar for the first time since 2023. A weaker US currency boosted precious metal prices. Gold climbed to a record above $4,965 per ounce, while silver neared $100 per ounce.
As noted above, this shift is occurring against a backdrop of rising policy uncertainty, including challenges to the Fed's independence and renewed tariff concerns stemming from US?Europe tensions. It is also notable that an increasing number of market participants are reducing exposure to US assets. Investors are selling US Treasuries and pouring money into emerging market funds at record rates, which is weighing on the dollar.
According to the latest data, India's holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to a five?year low as the country seeks to support its currency and diversify reserves, joining a broader trend of some large economies stepping back from the world's largest bond market.
Today, traders will watch US PMI data closely for fresh insight into the health of the world's largest economy. Market participants are also monitoring developments at the Fed, after President Donald Trump said he would soon announce a successor to Chair Jerome Powell.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,930. Overcoming that level would signal further upside and open the path to $6,946. An equally important objective for bulls is to secure control above $6,961, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,914. A break below this level could quickly push the instrument back to $6,896 and open the way to $6,883.
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