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Despite momentum indicators signaling strong overbuying in both assets, analysts emphasize a solid fundamental base underlying this rally. However, attributing the growth solely to speculation would be a mistake—the macroeconomic context remains favorable to precious metals.
Central bank demand remains stable, strengthening gold's role as a tool for diversifying reserves amid a loss of confidence in fiscal discipline: rising government borrowing and uncertainty over debt sustainability undermine the positions of fiat currencies.
The geopolitical backdrop remains tense, despite easing, following President Trump's abandonment of the military annexation of Greenland from Denmark—pressure on the EU to relinquish Arctic claims continues. This forces European investment companies and pension funds to reassess their investments: for example, the Danish AkademikerPension announced the sale of $100 million in bonds by the end of the month due to the risk of rising U.S. government debt.
The potential transformation of the global order encourages investors to hedge portfolio vulnerabilities with assets outside the fiat world—precious metals fit this logic perfectly. Current prices are justified by central bank accumulation and geopolitical risks, resembling trade against a backdrop of currency devaluation rather than a speculative bubble; the largest regulators are likely to continue purchases regardless of prices.
And despite the focus on gold being fixed at $5,000, the precious metal's growth potential remains high—the status of a safe-haven asset and dollar weakness outweigh factors such as stable rates.
The main event of next week—the Federal Reserve meeting—is unlikely to bring surprises: U.S. inflation data signals sustained price growth amid stable activity and the labor market, pushing back on softening policies.
The CME FedWatch Tool confirms the absence of expectations for a rate cut until June, and the release of production and the consumer sentiment index at the beginning of the week will add to market volatility.
Therefore, even from a technical standpoint, despite the overbought indicators on the daily chart, gold is supported by bulls.
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