26.01.202618:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 26th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.68 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in a rise of more than 40 points.

The risk of a currency intervention—or its actual execution—is not particularly important at this stage, as the yen has been strengthening actively against the U.S. dollar since last Friday. This move, contrary to the expectations of many analysts, points to a fundamental reassessment of statements made by Japan's prime minister regarding the weakness of the yen. Despite the sharp decline in USD/JPY over the medium term, this creates a high degree of uncertainty, complicating decision-making for both companies engaged in international trade and investors seeking to diversify their portfolios. Only after the dust settles will it be possible to plan ahead; for now, the market remains vulnerable to manipulation and speculative sentiment.

Later in the day, attention will turn to U.S. durable goods orders data. This report is expected to help assess the stability of the industrial sector and corporate investment plans. Experts will closely examine both the headline figure and orders excluding the transportation sector to gain a clearer picture of underlying trends. In addition, geopolitical developments and the risk of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government on January 31 should also be taken into account.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry level around 153.98 (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 154.96 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.96, I will exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. A continuation of the trend supports expectations for further gains.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 153.25 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 153.98 and 154.96 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 153.25 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.51, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long trades in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Pressure on the pair is expected to persist throughout the day.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 153.98 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.25 and 152.51 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.