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The GBP/USD currency pair spent much of the day in a complete flat on Monday but resumed its rise during the American trading session without any correction. The next resistance level of 1.3681 was surpassed, so the upward movement may continue today as well. On Monday, there was no macroeconomic background in the UK, while the US released a report on durable goods orders, which is considered significant. According to this report, the number of orders for November rose by 5.3%, with a forecast of +3.7%. However, the dollar did not benefit from these figures. Recall that last week, the market completely ignored an even more important third-quarter GDP report. Therefore, positive reports from across the ocean do not play any role for the dollar at the moment.
Throughout the second half of 2025, the dollar rose within a correction. We mentioned that in most cases, the decline of the GBP/USD pair was baseless. Now, almost any rise is "legitimate." The fundamental backdrop for the American currency remains weak, and Donald Trump has started 2026 as if his main goal is to maximize the decline of the dollar. Essentially, he is achieving this goal 100%. The trade war is not only not calming down, but it is also gaining momentum. Trump's grievances are increasing by the day. Thus, we expect the continued decline of the American currency.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the level of 1.3681 was complemented by 1.3675, and the only buy signal was generated when this area was surpassed. Now long positions can be held as long as the price remains above this area, aiming for 1.3763. The pair could continue to rise even without local informational support.
COT reports for the British pound show that sentiment among commercial traders has been constantly shifting in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are converging, with non-commercial traders dominating... sales. Recently, speculators have increased their long positions, suggesting a change in sentiment may be imminent, but this does not specifically affect the GBP/USD pair.
The dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as shown clearly on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and the Fed will reduce rates in the next 12 months regardless. Demand for the dollar will continue to fall. According to the latest COT report (from January 20) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 2,300 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 3,200 contracts over the week.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it is essential to understand that there is a single primary reason: Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is neutralized, the dollar could start to rise again, but when that will happen is anyone's guess.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. Thus, we consider the British pound poised to return to last year's highs and could reach much higher levels. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop fully supports this scenario, as the market has been correcting for six months and accumulating strength for a new surge northward.
For January 27, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3675-1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833. The Senkou Span B (1.3417) and Kijun-sen (1.3554) lines may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss to break even once the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, no significant events or releases are scheduled in the UK, while a secondary ADP report will be released in the US. However, the dollar may continue its decline even without a macroeconomic backdrop.
Today, traders may consider short positions with a target of 1.3615 if the price consolidates below the 1.3675-1.3681 area. Long positions remain relevant, with a target of 1.3763, as the 1.3681 level was surpassed on Monday.
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