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The US dollar index plunged yesterday to its weakest level since early 2022. It followed President Donald Trump's remark that he is comfortable with the recent decline in the dollar.
"No, I think it's fine," Trump told reporters in Iowa when asked whether the currency's fall concerns him. "Look at the business we're doing. The dollar is doing great."
Trump's comments exacerbated an already deep slide in the dollar that began with his trade war and the tariffs that roiled markets last year. Now, unpredictable political decisions are prompting foreign investors to step back from US assets and shift into alternative instruments.
The statement — at odds with the usual government concern over a strong national currency — produced a mixed reaction in financial markets. On the one hand, a weaker dollar theoretically supports US exports by making American goods more competitive abroad, potentially boosting manufacturing activity and creating jobs. On the other hand, dollar weakness can hurt American consumers' purchasing power by pushing up the price of imports. Some analysts also worry that a prolonged slide in the dollar could undermine confidence in the US economy more broadly.
Moreover, the president's words were read as a sign of a possible shift in currency?policy stance, increasing market uncertainty. Many analysts now wonder whether the Trump administration will act to counter further dollar weakness or will adopt a wait?and?see approach, betting that export advantages will outweigh potential downsides.
Recall that the president has long accused other countries of deliberately weakening their currencies to boost exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently emphasized the difference between the dollar's price and its value as a reserve currency. As a result, the latest comments were taken as a green light by traders to sell the US currency.
Importantly, the dollar's decline has coincided with falling prices of US government bonds and rising yields — another sign that other countries are now more cautious about buying US paper.
As I noted above, all of this has driven investors into competing stores of value such as gold, taking it to record highs. Market participants are also pouring money into assets like emerging?market funds at a record pace, reflecting a broader withdrawal from US assets that many experts have defined as a quiet exit.
Currency markets are responding accordingly.
Technical outlook for EUR/USD
Technically, EUR/USD buyers now need to think about taking 1.2030. Only that would make a test of 1.2080 realistic. From there a move to 1.2140 is possible, but achieving that without support from major players would be difficult. The farther target is 1.2170. On the downside, I would expect significant buying only around 1.1970. If no buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1935 or to open long positions from 1.1900.
Technical outlook for GBP/USD
For GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3820. Only then will a move toward 1.3865 be realistic; breaking above that will be quite difficult. The farther target is around 1.3910. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of 1.3785. If they succeed, a breakout of the range would deal a serious blow to bulls and could push GBP/USD to 1.3745 with scope to extend to 1.3710.
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