10.02.202613:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Why Bitcoin can't develop rally

Bitcoin remains under pressure despite having lost more than 50% from its all?time high last week. Trading is now around $69,000, and prospects for a sustained rally look limited.

One reason is market structure: any new inflow of capital is immediately absorbed by active sellers. It's a paradoxical situation where even significant incoming investment fails to produce a meaningful upward move in BTC price. At the same time, the total market capitalization of the leading digital asset is trending lower, and that is hard to counter.

The core fundamental problem is the predominance of sellers in the market—many emerged amid last week's panic—and they effectively neutralize attempts at an uptrend. The usual multiplier effect, where rising demand amplifies price moves, is not working now. That means even a major increase in incoming capital would be absorbed by existing supply without driving a sustained price rise.

Therefore, fresh liquidity from institutional investors cannot become an effective catalyst for Bitcoin's growth until the market environment clears out the mounting selling pressure. Only once that pressure subsides and buying?to?selling balances become more even will real conditions for a sustained recovery and further BTC upside emerge.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $72,100, which would open a direct path to $74,600 and then to $77,300. The farther target is around $78,500; a break above that would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $68,900. A move below that area could quickly push BTC toward $64,300. The far downside target is $60,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,095 opens a direct path to $2,199. The farther target is around $2,316; surpassing that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $1,972. A move back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,827. The far downside target is $1,720.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.