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Bitcoin has been indecisive for several days, and over the last three days, it has lost $4,000 in value. Therefore, "digital gold" is much closer to resuming its decline than starting a noticeable correction. The only pattern that could theoretically support a corrective movement at this time is the "bullish" IFVG on the 4-hour timeframe. However, we have not seen any reaction to this pattern over the past few days. As a result, we no longer consider this pattern relevant and remind traders that trading corrections during a strong downward trend is not advisable.
Yesterday, important reports on labor and unemployment from the US were published, showing relatively good values. At the very least, we can confidently say that the labor market is no longer plunging into the abyss. Recall that the normal figure for Non-Farm Payrolls is 150,000–200,000 jobs per month. Therefore, 130,000 is certainly better than 20,000 or 40,000, but it is still quite low. However, the decrease in unemployment and the addition of 130,000 new jobs made it clear to the Fed that monetary policy easing is not required in the near future.
Overall, the Fed's monetary policy factor is currently having no influence on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. We believe this factor was already priced in during the years 2022-2025, when Bitcoin formed its latest bullish trend with the establishment of a new ATH. For us, the technical picture currently takes priority. The downward trend has lasted only 4-5 months, so it will continue for at least another 6 months. At present, there are no signs of even an upward correction.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trend lower. The trend is bearish, and the CHOCH line is currently at $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to be finished. "In 2026, Bitcoin could fall to $60,000." We mentioned this just a week ago. Bitcoin reached $60,000 in just a few days... Recall that a sell signal formed within the "bearish" FVG ($96,900 – $98,000) and received confirmation on the lower timeframe. Thus, traders had an excellent opportunity to capture almost all of the recent downward movement. The current target remains the $57,500 level—corresponding to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The nearest area of interest (POI) for selling on the daily timeframe is between $79,500 and $81,100.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price continues to form a downward structure. The CHOCH line is at $90,560; only above this level can we speak of a transformation of the trend to upward. However, at the moment, there are no signs that Bitcoin could end its decline anytime soon. Even the "bullish" pattern, IFVG, has not elicited a substantial reaction. Instead, a small "bearish" FVG formed yesterday, which could serve as a starting point for a new price decline.
Bitcoin continues to form a solid downward trend. We continue to expect declines, targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% level from a three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of a trend reversal. Even the $57,500 level no longer appears to be a final stop. Among the areas of interest for selling on the daily timeframe, the last bearish FVG can be noted, which Bitcoin is still very far from reaching. The decline may resume without the need to work through the nearest POI area.
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