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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US dollar on Wednesday and returned to the 1.3611–1.3620 support level. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward the 161.8% corrective level at 1.3755. A consolidation below the 1.3595–1.3620 level would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 1.3526–1.3539 support level.
The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave failed to break the previous peak. We saw two consecutive "bearish" waves, which was enough to signal a trend reversal. To shift the trend back to "bullish," consolidation above the last peak at 1.3730 is required. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, but the U.S. news backdrop has also rarely given traders real cause for optimism. Donald Trump and weakness in the U.S. labor market have regularly provided support to the bulls.
On Wednesday, the news background had every chance to throw the dollar a lifeline. However, the lifeline thrown into the sea immediately sank itself. The January unemployment and labor market reports showed very strong figures, but the revision to the total number of jobs created in 2025 spoiled the mood for bearish traders. It turned out that in reality, 400,000 fewer jobs were created than previously estimated. On average, about 15,000 jobs per month were created in the U.S.—a negligible figure. Thus, traders certainly reacted to the January reports, but the bears did not have long to celebrate. Today is likely to be calmer than yesterday, and the pound still has a strong support level at 1.3595–1.3620. Today, technical factors will take center stage for traders. Without breaking through this zone, the dollar cannot count on further strengthening.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. As a result, a reversal in favor of the dollar followed, and a decline began toward the 1.3369–1.3435 support level. The "bearish" trend on the hourly chart has not yet ended. Consolidation above 1.3795 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the "bullish" trend toward 1.4020. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 7,107, while Short positions rose by 4,856. The gap between Long and Short positions is now effectively 95,000 versus 108,000 and continues to narrow. Bears have dominated in recent months, but they seem to have exhausted their potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained "bearish" trend for the pound.
In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally see demand in the market—but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.
News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On February 12, the economic calendar contains four entries, of which only the British data are of any notable interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be weak.
GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:
Selling the pair is possible after consolidation below the 1.3595–1.3620 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3526–1.3539. Buying positions can be opened after a rebound from the 1.3595–1.3620 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3755.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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