13.02.202605:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD Pair. February 13. The World Rises Against Donald Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Thursday, maintaining an upward trend that is clearly visible from a kilometer away. On the penultimate trading day of the week, the British pound again leaned toward growth, as there are no grounds for a decline. The market continues to ignore almost all macroeconomic data, except for the most important American reports. But it will soon start ignoring those as well, because the "foolery" of constant revisions of previous months' values is beginning to annoy traders, and trust in the published figures is approaching zero.

Yesterday, it became known that the British economy grew unrealistically by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. One can only ask: where did Andrew Bailey see "faster economic growth at the beginning of the new year"? The UK economy continues to grow at an average rate of 0.1-0.2% per quarter. A growth of 0.3% can be considered high. Industrial production has already decreased in volume as expected. This time, the losses amounted to 0.9%, while traders were expecting 0%. As mentioned, the British pound did not experience any distress over this. This is easy to explain: no matter how bad things are in the UK, they're worse in the United States. Donald Trump, with the help of Kevin Warsh, can drive the American economy to 15% growth per year, impose tariffs on the remaining half of the world, and go for a second round. This will not strengthen the consumer sector of the U.S. economy.

The dollar currently has no trump cards—only twos and threes. The fact that it is not falling every month and sometimes even corrects itself can be seen as a gift from the market to a once-strong, stable currency. So to speak, "for past services." Trump continues to do everything possible to make investors flee without looking back from American securities, the U.S. dollar, and everything that says "Made in the USA." This week, it was announced that the Chinese government banned commercial banks and other financial institutions from buying U.S. Treasuries. Next up is Japan, which intends to sell $800 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. What did the White House leader want? For the whole world to stay silent and dance to Washington's tune?

Many countries understand that they cannot defeat America in trade. But at every convenient opportunity, they will strike back from the shadows. Trump forces (through blackmail and threats) other countries to buy energy resources from the U.S., invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the American economy, and impose "draconian" taxes? Trading partners (if they can be called that; rather, they are opponents and rivals) will respond according to their capabilities: selling off U.S. Treasuries, reducing dollar reserves, expanding trade relations with other countries, and imposing various export restrictions. It is no coincidence that many experts are sounding the alarm over Trump's policies. The problems in the U.S. are now like the proverbial gopher. They may not be visible, but they are there.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 92 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Friday, February 13, we expect movement within a range limited by the levels of 1.3531 and 1.3715. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone on January 26, signaling the start of a correction that may already be complete.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3550

S2 – 1.3428

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3672

R2 – 1.3794

R3 – 1.3916

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is on track to continue its 2025 upward trend, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the American currency to grow in 2026. Even its status as a "safe haven" no longer matters to traders. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant in the near future when the price is above the moving average. If the price is positioned below the moving average line, small shorts can be considered with a target of 1.3550 on technical (correction) grounds. From time to time, the American currency shows corrections (in a global context), but for trend growth, it needs global positive factors.

Explanations of the Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, it means the trend is strong at the moment.
• The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will move over the next day, based on current volatility readings.
• The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates a potential trend reversal in the opposite direction.