13.02.202607:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on February 13

The euro and the pound tried, but the dollar once again demonstrated significant strengthening, completely negating all attempts to apply pressure in the first half of the day.

The second half of the day was marked by some volatility in the markets, prompted by fresh macroeconomic data from the U.S. Initial jobless claims and the housing market report showed results that disappointed somewhat, but did not create serious problems for buyers of the U.S. dollar.

Today's European trading is set to be eventful, as investors' attention will be on key macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone. Publication of fourth-quarter 2025 GDP data is expected. These figures will serve as a crucial indicator of the region's economic health, reflecting its growth capacity at the end of last year. Alongside the GDP figures, the market will also receive information on employment changes. This parameter directly affects consumer spending and the overall economic climate, so its dynamics can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the euro's exchange rate.

Moreover, data on the balance of trade will be presented. This will show whether exports exceed imports, which is an important indicator of the Eurozone's economic competitiveness on the global stage. An improvement in the trade balance typically has a positive effect on the national currency.

As for the pound, today's lack of fresh UK data shifts the focus of experts and traders to speeches by Bank of England officials. The words of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Hugh Pill gain particular significance. His comments regarding future steps in monetary policy can significantly impact the volatility of the British pound. The market will closely analyze every word from Huw Pill, looking for any hints regarding possible changes in interest rates.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it's best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is the best choice.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout)

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.1875 may lead the euro to rise to the area of 1.1925 and 1.1957.
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.1855 may lead to the euro falling to the area of 1.1830 and 1.1800.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.3635 may lead to the pound rising to the area of 1.3665 and 1.3700.
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.3600 may lead to the pound falling to the area of 1.3575 and 1.3545.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 153.35 may lead to the dollar rising to the area of 153.67 and 154.07.
• Selling on a breakout of the level 152.85 may lead to dollar sell-offs in the area of 152.47 and 152.10.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback)

For the EUR/USD Pair

• I will look for short positions after failing to break above 1.1885 and pulling back below this level.
• I will look for long positions after failing to break below 1.1856 and pulling back to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after failing to break above 1.3630 and pulling back below this level.
• I will look for longs after failing to break below 1.3600 and pulling back to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after failing to break above 0.7104 and pulling back below this level.
• I will look for longs after failing to break below 0.7075 and pulling back to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• I will look for shorts after failing to break above 1.3625 and pulling back below this level.
• I will look for longs after failing to break below 1.3602 and pulling back to this level.