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The price test at 153.10 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 153.62, from which selling on a bounce allowed for a profit of about 60 pips from the market.
Yesterday's pessimistic reports on initial jobless claims and the U.S. housing market put pressure on the dollar and prompted purchases of the Japanese yen. This data partially indicated a slowdown in the recovery of the labor and housing markets, raising investors' concerns about future economic growth prospects. Jobless claims, which came in above forecasts, hinted at the persistence of negative labor-market trends despite the Federal Reserve's supportive measures. Meanwhile, the slowdown in activity in the housing market, one of the key drivers of the American economy, suggests that loan interest rates remain very high for many households.
Against this backdrop of negative news, market participants continued to reassess their positions, favoring more conservative assets, among which the Japanese yen has recently been regarded as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 153.45 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 153.87 (thicker green line on the chart). At 153.87, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 153.05 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to opposing levels of 153.45 and 153.87 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 153.05 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 152.49, where I intend to exit the shorts and also immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 153.45 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to opposing levels of 153.05 and 152.49 can be expected.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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