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Bitcoin has plunged more than 50% since October 2025 and generally shows little appetite to rally. Occasional bullish patterns pop up on the 4?hour chart, but bullish moves are weak and corrective. We believe the correction may be lengthy and complicated while the downtrend remains intact. Therefore, we expect Bitcoin's decline to resume toward $57,500 and lower.
Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad, showed up again, feeling compelled once again to remind traders that Bitcoin is the best asset on the planet and that gold cannot compare. He said that if asked to choose a single asset, he would pick Bitcoin, because its supply is limited — unlike gold — and fiat currencies will lose value over time due to central banks regularly "turning on the printing presses."
According to Kiyosaki, humanity can in theory, keep mining gold endlessly, whereas Bitcoin issuance is capped at 21 million coins and "we are actively approaching that number." He did not explain why that makes gold worse than Bitcoin. Even if gold could be mined indefinitely, it still has physical properties and intrinsic value unlike Bitcoin, which is a piece of computer code. He also noted that the dollar — like many other currencies — will continue to depreciate, so holders of fiat money are the biggest losers.
Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We still expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three?year uptrend); there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like a final stop. On the daily TF, the last bearish FVG is a POI for shorts but is still far from current prices. The 4?hour TF shows three unresolved bearish FVGs that could provide shorting opportunities; however, these patterns belong to the prior trend and are unlikely to trigger its resumption by themselves.
On the daily TF, a downtrend continues to build. The key sell pattern is the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and protracted. Since that pattern formed, Ethereum has already collapsed about 55% (roughly $2,500). A near?term corrective bounce is possible. Local upside moves can be traded using bullish patterns on the 4?hour TF, but we do not recommend chasing corrections. In the medium term, we expect the daily bearish patterns to play out and the downtrend to resume. Ether's downside targets extend as low as $1,400.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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