16.02.202619:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 16th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.27 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in a 30-point rise.

Next, it makes sense to pay close attention to the upcoming speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman. She is expected to comment on recent statistical data indicating a weakening of inflationary pressure in the United States. Investors will look for signs of how sustainable the Federal Reserve considers the current easing of inflation. If Bowman expresses confidence in a long-term decline in inflationary pressure, this could increase market expectations for further rate cuts in the spring of this year. Conversely, an emphasis on persistent inflation risks could heighten concerns about a continued wait-and-see stance. A key aspect will be Bowman's assessment of the impact of the Fed's previously implemented accommodative measures on the economy. She will likely discuss how these steps have contributed to slowing inflation and supporting the labor market. Positive signals would appeal to dollar buyers and could extend the rise of the USD/JPY pair.

As for my intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 153.70 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 154.14 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.14, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move from the level). Further growth of the pair today can be expected following a hawkish stance from Bowman.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.35 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 153.70 and 154.14 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 153.35 level is updated (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.93, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.70 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.35 and 152.93 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.