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The confrontation between D. Trump and the Fed continues, albeit beneath the surface. While the external feud has subsided in anticipation of J. Powell's departure as current Fed chair, it has not disappeared without a trace, as it may appear. And it is, of course, affecting market sentiment.
Thus, the confrontation between Trump and the Fed seems to have quieted, but that is only an illusion. The American president appears to have decided to take a pause until April, when his appointee will take the central bank chair, and only then will he be able to pursue a course aimed at cutting interest rates and stimulating the real sector of the national economy.
This confrontation is now vividly expressed in the distribution of forces for, against, and neutral on rate cuts. That struggle largely reflects divisions in American society. And, regrettably, it fully influences market dynamics, which remain in a state of global uncertainty.
In this context, today's release of inflation indicators will be interesting. I remind you that reports on the PCE index and its core component, as well as numbers on personal consumption and incomes, will be presented. Those, primarily the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, should show an increase, which, in theory, the market should take as an important signal for the Fed to pause cuts. But more attentive market participants must note that these data are all for December and are effectively outdated. This month, a consumer inflation report was already released, showing a slowdown. That clearly dissonates with the December PCE figures and the personal income and spending values.
How might markets react to this news? I think, on the whole, they will react cautiously. If reports show a larger rise—whether in the PCE or in line with expectations—one can expect a local speculative strengthening of the dollar in the forex market and weaker demand for gold and equities, but overall, they are unlikely to materially alter the broader market picture. And if, conversely, they fall, that will only reinforce expectations of more vigorous rate cuts, followed by a decline in the dollar and rising demand for equities and precious metals.
Overall, I believe that Trump has not abandoned his desire to stimulate the US economic recovery, which should lead him to prevail over the Fed.
Forecast for the day:
USD/JPY
The pair is trading below resistance at 155.50. A strong persistence of expectations for further rate cuts in light of today's US statistics could push the pair down to 153.75. A level for selling it could be 154.96.
GOLD
Gold is trading near the upper bound of the 4,846.30–5,100.00 range. If the data does not support gold, it will nevertheless resume its rally to 5,100.00 on geopolitical waves and then to 5,200.00. The level for buying it could be 5,060.30.
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