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Today, Monday, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade with a positive tone amid overall U.S. dollar weakness.
On Friday, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing broad reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Despite this legal setback, U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear that his trade agenda remains unchanged and quickly announced a new 15% tariff regime. However, the swift implementation of these tariffs has heightened market concerns about the potential negative impact of renewed trade tensions.
Additional pressure on the dollar came from a weak U.S. GDP release, which offset the impact of stronger inflation data and pushed the dollar index back from a four-week high, supporting EUR/USD for the second consecutive day.
The preliminary estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2025, partly due to a prolonged government shutdown. On an annualized basis, GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in October–December from 4.4% in the third quarter, significantly missing forecasts. At the same time, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 0.4% month-over-month in January, with the annual figure reaching 3.0%, the highest level since November 2023. This strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to keep its key interest rate unchanged at its upcoming March meeting.
Nevertheless, traders continue to price in a higher probability that the U.S. central bank will cut borrowing costs in June and reduce rates by 25 basis points twice in 2026. Such a medium-term scenario implies further weakening of the U.S. dollar, providing additional support for EUR/USD. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty regarding the term of office of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, as well as rising risks of a full-scale trade confrontation, may limit the upward potential of the single currency.
Political factors in Europe are also increasing nervousness: the chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade stated that the EU intends to freeze the ratification process of a trade agreement with the United States until there is greater clarity regarding the Trump administration's trade strategy and more detailed legal explanations are provided. The agreement in question includes a 15% tariff on a significant share of European exports to the U.S., while eliminating most duties on American goods—an arrangement that has already been criticized as asymmetric.
From a technical perspective, for bulls to gain control of the market, they need to break above the 20-day SMA, which runs just above the 1.1850 level. At the moment, it is important to hold the round level of 1.1800. Failure to hold it could accelerate the decline toward 1.1740 or the February low, with potential support near the 50-day SMA. Oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, indicating that the pair has not yet chosen a clear direction.
The table below shows the performance of major currencies for today. The U.S. dollar is showing the strongest gains against the Australian dollar.
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