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The test of the price at 1.1793 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. A similar situation occurred at 1.1807.
Washington's position and the new 10% tariffs have created global uncertainty about the Trump administration's future tariff policy. Ambiguity regarding trade relations and potential countermeasures from other countries prompted investors to seek safer assets. The risk of tariffs being raised to 15% and the absence of a clear, consistent trading strategy create barriers to global trade and potentially threaten economic growth. In turn, this may negatively impact the U.S. economy itself.
Today, there is no statistical data from the eurozone in the first half of the day, so the euro may have a chance for a slight recovery. The lack of fresh economic data from the euro area creates a kind of vacuum that may allow other factors to temporarily take center stage. In an environment of uncertainty, where there are no new causes for concern or, conversely, optimism, currencies often reflect previous movements or follow the general sentiment in global markets.
As for the intraday strategy, I will lean more towards scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I might buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1787 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1804. At the point of 1.1804, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro today can only be done within the framework of a small correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1771 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1787 and 1.1804.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1771 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1753, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1787 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1771 and 1.1753.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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