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During Monday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1830, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1770. A rebound from 1.1770 would favor the euro and a modest rise back toward 1.1830. A consolidation below 1.1770 would increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1696.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish. The bulls have taken a pause within a large-scale offensive that would have been impossible without Donald Trump, and this pause has dragged on significantly. However, the effective refusal of the U.S. president to comply with the Supreme Court's ruling could bring the bulls back to the market.
On Monday, the news background was effectively absent, as the Ifo Institute indices from Germany failed to overshadow more significant news and topics. The market did not react to Donald Trump's decision to impose new 15% trade tariffs, which effectively means not only a continuation but also an escalation of the trade war. Trump demonstrated that even the U.S. Supreme Court cannot overturn his decision, meaning future attempts to influence his will through the courts are doomed to fail.
Why is the dollar so stable under the current news background? In my view, it is all about Iran. By sending several armadas of warships to the Persian Gulf, the U.S. president is demonstrating to the world — and to Tehran in particular — that he intends to get his way on the nuclear deal issue. At present, negotiations between Tehran and Washington appear more formal than a genuine attempt by both sides to reach an agreement. The positions of the two capitals differ radically. Washington demands complete nuclear disarmament; Tehran refuses. Therefore, the probability of a deal is negligible. The world is bracing for a military operation in Iran, and the dollar is benefiting from its status as a safe-haven asset — a status that was significantly shaken in 2025.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1748 and reversed in favor of the euro, consolidating above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. However, a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator allowed for a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward 1.1748. Another rebound from this level would again allow for some growth toward 1.1813 and 1.1919, while consolidation below 1.1748 would increase the probability of further decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 7,155 long positions and 1,330 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 312,000, compared to 137,000 short positions — more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players reduced short positions and increased long positions. Then came the shutdown, and now we are seeing the same pattern again: professional traders continue to increase their long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States. For example, the serious deterioration of the labor market (2025), a decline in global reputation, and capital outflows from the U.S. Traders are also concerned about a potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
U.S. – ADP Employment Change (weekly) (13:00–15:00 UTC).
On February 24, the economic calendar contains one secondary entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be extremely limited.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling was possible on the hourly chart after a rebound from 1.1830, targeting 1.1770 and 1.1696. The first target has been reached. Buying positions are possible after a rebound from 1.1770 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1830 and 1.1889.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.
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