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The test of the price at 1.1779 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. The second test of this price led to the realization of Scenario #2 for buying euros, resulting in a slight 10-pip increase in the pair.
Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials on keeping the key interest rate unchanged did not provide the expected support for the U.S. dollar. It seems that the market has already priced in the scenario of maintaining the current monetary policy, and reassurances from the central bank's representatives have failed to change the prevailing sentiment. Moreover, the absence of any hints of a rate cut in the foreseeable future has intensified investors' concerns about slowing economic growth, which, in turn, has negatively impacted the U.S. dollar.
Today, the first half of the day is set to be marked by several significant economic events. Market participants will primarily focus on data reflecting changes in Germany's gross domestic product (GDP). The figures are expected to indicate weakness in the German economy, which will not greatly help the euro continue to rise against the dollar.
Simultaneously, key indicators regarding consumer prices in the eurozone are anticipated. The core index, which excludes fluctuations in commodity and food prices, is considered a more accurate reflection of sustained inflationary pressure. Economists forecast it will decline to 2.2%, which is almost in line with the European Central Bank's target level. If the figures align with economists' forecasts, it is unlikely we will see anything interesting in the market.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1811 (the green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 1.1829. At the level of 1.1829, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell euros back on the pullback, aiming for a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro today is only feasible after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1798 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1811 and 1.1829.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1798 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1781, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately on the pullback (aiming for a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return today if the data are poor. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1811 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to opposing levels of 1.1798 and 1.1781.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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