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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and declined to the support level of 1.3437–1.3470. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and lead to some growth toward the resistance levels of 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3595–1.3620. A consolidation below the 1.3437–1.3470 level would suggest a continuation of the decline toward the support level of 1.3352–1.3362.
The wave situation remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. To shift the trend back to bullish, a consolidation above the last peak at 1.3573 or two consecutive bullish waves are required. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, but the information flow in the U.S. has also rarely been truly encouraging for traders. In recent weeks, geopolitics has supported the bears and given them the upper hand.
On Thursday, the news background consisted solely of geopolitical developments. Bearish traders continue their attacks amid rising tensions around Iran. Yesterday, it became known that another round of negotiations on Tehran's nuclear disarmament had failed, which means a possible strike on Iran in the very near future. In addition, overnight, hostilities began between Afghanistan and Pakistan—yet another geopolitical conflict on the world's political map that increased traders' demand for safe-haven currencies. In my view, the growth of the U.S. dollar in recent weeks has been driven exclusively by geopolitical events. If traders were reacting to the economic background, the dollar would hardly be performing so strongly. The pound's support level at 1.3437–1.3470 still has a chance to withstand the bears' pressure, so technical analysis should not be abandoned under the influence of geopolitical events.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the upper boundary of the downward trend channel and returned to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would again favor the British currency and the resumption of growth. A consolidation above the channel would significantly increase the probability of further growth toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3795. A close below the 1.3369–1.3435 zone would favor continued decline toward the 1.3118–1.3140 level. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became slightly less bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,358, while the number of short positions increased by 10,236. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 82,000 versus 124,000. In recent months, bears have more often dominated, although the situation with contracts on the euro is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound under any circumstances.
In my opinion, the pound still looks less "risky" than the dollar, and this is its main advantage. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally benefit from market demand. But not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to pursue monetary easing to stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression and the trade war also do not add optimism for dollar bulls.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
U.S. – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).
On February 27, the economic calendar contains only one secondary entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be extremely weak or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today if there is an hourly close below the 1.3437–1.3470 level, with a target of 1.3352–1.3362. Buying positions may be opened on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3595–1.3620.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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