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The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, having plummeted on Monday. We do not believe that further strengthening of the American currency is guaranteed, and even the prospect of the dollar rising on Monday was met with skepticism. This point of view is explained quite simply. The market was prepared for a new war to begin in the Middle East. Perhaps it was not ready for Iranian missiles to fly not only towards Israel or American military ships in the Persian Gulf. But the market was ready for a new military confrontation. Ultimately, Monday favored the dollar, and now the American currency could either complete its rise at any moment or continue to rise for an extended period.
Geopolitics is an extremely complex factor to analyze. Geopolitical conflicts, as history shows, can last for years. However, it is unlikely that traders will hoard dollars for years solely on the basis of geopolitics. Typically, the market reacts to the outbreak of a new war or to significant events related to warfare that will impact commodity, raw material, or energy markets. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is an event of global significance. Therefore, in reality, the dollar may appreciate not just due to the onset of war between Iran and US allies (as we mentioned, traders were prepared for a new conflict in the Middle East), but because of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's transported oil passes, which has already triggered a sharp rise in oil and gas prices.
The US dollar has been rising for over a month now. Initially, it rose as a correction against a significant fall in January. Then, a whole package of disappointing data came from the UK. After that, only a few US reports emerged that could support the dollar, and the market accepted them at face value. About two weeks ago, the situation surrounding Iran began to escalate, and the market began preparing for a new war. As a result, we are witnessing an unexpected rise in the US currency. No one could confidently say a month ago that a full-scale war would break out between Iran and a whole group of countries. No one could know what the key macroeconomic indicators for the US and UK would reveal in February. Thus, the current southward movement of the GBP/USD pair is a result of local events, not an overall trend, which, let us remind you, remains upward across all higher timeframes.
When and where the current decline will end are also impossible to predict. Everything will now depend on the developments in the Middle East. The more intense the war initiated by the "chief peacemaker of the 21st century," Trump, becomes, the stronger the US dollar may grow, reducing demand for American goods and raw materials worldwide. Alongside rising energy prices, prices for virtually all goods and services are likely to increase, which threatens to accelerate inflation globally. Central banks will once again have to adjust their monetary policies and adapt to the rapidly changing situation in the world.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 101 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Tuesday, March 3, we expect the pair to trade within a range bounded by 1.3289 and 1.3491. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator has once again entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the correction.
The GBP/USD currency pair has been correcting for a whole month, but its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to grow in 2026. Even its status as a "reserve currency" no longer plays a crucial role for traders. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is positioned above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3289 based on technical (corrective) grounds. In recent weeks, almost all news and events have turned against the British pound, prolonging the correction.
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