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The price test at 1.3390 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 25 pips.
Strong ISM manufacturing index data from the US became the main argument for buying the US dollar against the British pound. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which exceeded analysts' expectations and rose to 52.4 points, signaled a recovery in the US manufacturing sector. This strengthened investors' confidence in the US economy's resilience.
Today, the UK's annual budget will be released, which could lead to a sharp increase in market volatility. Investors are anxiously awaiting this moment, as industry experts predict serious changes in taxes and government spending. In recent months, the British currency has been losing ground against the dollar amid discussions about the UK's rising budget deficit. In the event of a weak budget, the pound could quickly resume its decline, completely negating yesterday's upward correction against the dollar.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point reaches around 1.3374 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3424 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3424, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions back (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). One can expect the pound to rise only after very good data are released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3340 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposite levels of 1.3374 and 1.3424 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3340 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3284, where I plan to exit the shorts and also open immediate longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers may appear at any time. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to drop.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3374 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposite levels of 1.3340 and 1.3284 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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