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The war in Iran has been ongoing for six days, and the market is starting to wonder when it will end. In these six days, the entire world has faced the threat of a severe energy crisis due to Iran's strikes on oil refineries in the Middle East and the destruction of liquefied natural gas facilities in Qatar. There is no doubt that Iran will continue its retaliatory strikes as long as enemy missiles are flying toward it. Therefore, the destruction in Iran is of little concern to much of the world. However, the destruction that Iran could inflict with its missile attacks worries many.
Based on this, one could assume that the Western world is eager to see the conflict end quickly. However, Trump is not stopping and insists on achieving his objectives in full. The question is, what can be considered a victory for the US in this war for it to conclude?
The primary objectives for the US and Israel in Iran are the complete destruction of its nuclear and missile programs, as well as regime change. Without the latter point, the first two will only serve as temporary solutions. However, most political experts state that Washington and its allies can bomb Iranian cities as much as they want; this will not eliminate all nuclear sites and missile depots.
Experts estimate that Iran may possess up to 3,000 various missiles, which are undoubtedly dispersed throughout the country, a country larger in area than any European state. Moreover, much of Iran's territory consists of mountains. Almost all key sites in Iran have long been situated underground or in the mountains. Consequently, America can bomb Iran as much as it wants, but can never be entirely sure that nuclear facilities and missile depots are completely destroyed.
It is also important to remember the vast stockpiles of Shahed-type strike drones, which are inexpensive to produce and require enormous expenditures on air defense systems from other countries. In simple terms, Iran can attack nearby countries with inexpensive Shahed drones that can overwhelm opponents' interceptor missiles, each of which costs tens or even hundreds of times more than the kamikaze drones. The threat they pose is no less significant than that of missiles.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach the 25 figure. At this moment, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect prices to rise in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e can be completed at any time, as it already has a convincing form. I consider it prudent to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective wave set may be completed shortly, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can currently advise looking for opportunities for new purchases with targets above the 39 figure. In my view, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, but recent events in the Middle East are complicating the corrective structure.
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