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Bitcoin still shows no particular desire to grow, but over the last couple of days, it has risen by several thousand dollars. However, at the moment, this growth does not allow it to break out of the flat. A deviation has formed near the upper boundary of the sideways channel, so today or tomorrow, the first cryptocurrency may head back to the lower boundary of the sideways channel, meaning the level of $65,100. If the deviation turns out to be false, the completion of the flat is still required to identify further growth.
Meanwhile, American financier and investor Ray Dalio stated that in the world, there is only one real gold, and Bitcoin will never replace or displace the yellow precious metal. Unlike real gold, Bitcoin does not have support from central banks. Moreover, Dalio sees no reason for central banks to invest in Bitcoin or hold it in the long term. The investor also noted a fairly high level of correlation between Bitcoin and technology sector stocks. Thus, a decline in demand for tech giants or AI companies provokes a decline in sales of the first cryptocurrency, making it less stable in times of stress and chaos in the stock market and more vulnerable.
Dalio also pointed out the factor of anonymity that Bitcoin once had. Now, almost any transaction on the network can be traced, and in the future, quantum computers will pose a serious threat to the network's security. It is also worth mentioning that the issuance of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins only at this time. Since Bitcoin is a software code, it costs nothing to double the issuance by changing a few lines of that code. Many investors and experts currently insist that more than 21 million coins can never be mined. But this statement is like selling apartments by a developer with a view of the sea, a park, or a river. You are buying the view from the window, and in a couple of years, another building is constructed in front of your home.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of a three-year upward trend), and at this moment, there are no signs of a trend reversal. However, even the level of $57,500 now does not look like a final stop. Among the POI, at this time, we can only highlight the nearest "bearish" FVG on the daily timeframe, which is quite far from the price. On the 4-hour timeframe, a deviation of the upper boundary of the sideways channel has formed, confirmed on the M30.
On the daily timeframe, a downward trend continues to form. The key sell pattern has been and remains a "bearish" order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the movement triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. After its formation, Ethereum has already depreciated by 55% or $2,500. In the near future, an upward correction should be expected; however, the price is still in a fairly narrow sideways channel. Yesterday, Ethereum worked out the upper boundary of its sideways channel and formed a deviation, similar to the deviation formed by Bitcoin (with confirmation). Thus, Ethereum may start moving toward the lower boundary of the flat.
CHOCH – break of the trend structure.
Liquidity – Liquidity is the Stop Loss of traders that market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price passes through these areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas.
IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction from it but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position with the aim of capturing liquidity to form their position in the opposite direction.
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