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The test of the price at 1.1605 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.1565.
Today, market participants will focus on assessing the dynamics of the eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP). This data will provide a more comprehensive view of the state of the economies of the countries using the euro at the beginning of the current year. A downward revision of the indicator could quickly restore pressure on the euro against the US dollar.
In addition to GDP data, information on changes in employment levels in the eurozone will be released. This statistic is one of the most sensitive indicators of the labor market's condition and, consequently, overall economic well-being. The employment report will help evaluate the economy's effectiveness in creating new jobs, which, in turn, directly impacts consumer activity and inflation levels. Any deviation from expectations, whether positive or negative, can provoke increased market fluctuations.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1630 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1670. At point 1.1670, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is important to note that growth for the euro today can only be expected after good GDP data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to increase from it.
Scenario No. 2: I plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1605 twice and MACD is oversold, expecting a reversal toward 1.1630 and 1.1670.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1605 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1565, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will remain today, in any case. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1630 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1605 and 1.1565 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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