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The test of the 1.3333 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.
Despite the relative calm in macroeconomic releases today, traders will be waiting for data on the UK House Price Index from Halifax. This index tracks changes in housing costs by analyzing mortgage applications and recent transactions, allowing an assessment of the current balance of supply and demand. Even though this report is the only significant macroeconomic event in the first half of the day for the UK, it may still affect the pound sterling's exchange rate. Positive data indicating rising housing prices may suggest high consumer confidence and economic stability, which, in turn, favors the British currency. Conversely, negative reporting showing stagnation or declining prices may raise concerns about slowing economic growth and create downward pressure on the pound.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3373 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 1.3411 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3411, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth for the pound can only be counted on after very good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3353 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.3373 and 1.3411 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3353 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3320, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers may reveal themselves at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3373 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3353 and 1.3320 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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