10.03.202600:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump is Doing Everything to Weaken China

The war in the Middle East has been ongoing for over a week and has somewhat hit a deadlock. Donald Trump clearly expected Iran to fall within three days after the elimination of Ali Khamenei, with the country welcoming him with open arms and allowing the American president to choose a new leader. As can be easily guessed, Trump's plan did not work. Iran has proven to have sufficient military power to at least fend off attacks from all sides. As a result, the regime did not collapse, it did not abandon its nuclear program, and instead of Ali Khamenei, his son became Iran's Supreme Leader. In the event of the son's elimination, there will surely be more candidates for the vacant position.

Iran maintains unity of faith and political course. Despite the mass protests that have regularly surged across the country over the last decade, no such reports have emerged from the country at this time. Protests have been put on hold to unite in the fight against a common enemy. Now Washington and its partners need to take the next step—a ground operation. However, as I mentioned earlier, a ground operation in Iran is very different from a ground operation in Venezuela. In Venezuela, Trump was able to execute an operation to capture Maduro in less than a day. It was indeed an operation that no one expected. And if someone did expect it, they were not prepared for it. Now Iran is armed, and landing on its territory unnoticed by U.S. units seems highly unlikely.

Even if the Americans manage to land a few thousand troops on the shores, what can they do against an almost million-strong Iranian army? It looks very much like an adventure. Trump himself mentioned over the weekend that a landing operation on Iranian shores will only be possible under very compelling reasons. He also stated that he does not intend to go into detail or share all of the White House's plans. Therefore, in the near future, a new escalation of the conflict is not expected, but Washington may very well make another "knight's move." It is hard to say whether markets can breathe easier, but oil has already lost about $20 from its peak today. Meanwhile, economists have begun to debate the necessity of the war in Iran.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward trend. Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. Targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect prices to increase in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is prudent to look for areas and levels for new purchases, with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form than it currently has. I believe the corrective wave structure can be completed soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I recommend looking for opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, and the upward trend does not appear to be over.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty about the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.