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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday reversed in favor of the British pound, consolidated above the 1.3341–1.3352 level, and rose toward the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465. A rebound from this zone today would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward 1.3341–1.3352. A consolidation above 1.3437–1.3465 would increase the chances of further growth toward the next resistance level at 1.3526–1.3539.
The wave situation is starting to shift toward a bullish scenario. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, we are beginning to see the first signs of a bullish trend. The information background for the pound has been weak in recent months, while geopolitics gave bears a clear advantage in the market. However, the war in Iran may end soon, and the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened by American naval forces.
On Monday, the news flow was essentially absent if we talk about the economy. In recent weeks, the market has paid little attention to economic data and even ignored important statistics on the U.S. labor market and unemployment released last Friday. However, unlike geopolitics, such statistics do not lose relevance quickly. Traders cannot buy the dollar every day simply because the war in Iran continues. New dollar purchases require new events. At the same time, the condition of the U.S. labor market, which still requires stimulus from the Federal Reserve, could put long-term pressure on the dollar.
If oil prices manage to stabilize and the war in Iran ends, the dollar will lose a key support factor, and traders will immediately recall the GDP decline in the fourth quarter, the weakness of the labor market, and the rising unemployment in the United States. The market will also return to assessing the impact of Trump's trade war, which is another negative factor for the U.S. currency. For bulls, the main thing now is that the conflict in Iran does not escalate again. If that does not happen, the pound will gradually recover, and a bullish trend remains on all higher timeframes. Thus, for the whole of 2026, I still favor buying.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the upper boundary of the downward trend channel. A rebound from this line and the 1.3369–1.3435 level would favor the U.S. currency and lead to a renewed decline toward the 1.3118–1.3140 support level. A close above the downward channel would suggest the end of the bearish trend and open the way for growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.
The sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the last reporting week, which under the current circumstances no longer appears accidental. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,714, while short positions increased by 7,900. The gap between long and short contracts now stands at 59,000 vs. 132,000.
In recent months, bears have dominated more often, although the situation with euro contracts is the opposite. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but everything now depends not on economic indicators or Trump's trade policy, but on the duration and scale of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared with the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, a correction began while the bullish trend remained intact, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Negotiations on an agreement between the United States and Iran failed, which is why the dollar is currently strengthening due to geopolitics.
United States
The economic calendar for March 10 does not contain major releases. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be weak or absent.
Selling the pair may be considered today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3437–1.3465 level with a target of 1.3341–1.3352. I previously recommended buying if the pair closed on the hourly chart above 1.3341–1.3352, targeting 1.3437–1.3465—this target has already been reached.
New buying opportunities may arise if the pair closes above 1.3437–1.3465, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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