12.03.202600:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump May Face Increased Resistance from Iran. Part 2

Donald Trump has previously referred to Ali Khamenei's son as an unsuitable candidate for the Supreme Leader of Iran. Following Mojtaba's appointment, he promised to eliminate him as well if he did not make concessions to Washington. It is noteworthy that since the strike that killed Ali Khamenei and his family, Mojtaba has not appeared in public. This suggests that the new Ayatollah of Iran will be carefully hiding, and Israel and the U.S. have already declared him a new legitimate target.

According to experts in Eastern culture, religion, and politics, Mojtaba Khamenei may become an even harsher leader than his father. It is also important to consider the factor of blood vengeance. In combination, the new leader of Iran could lead to global problems not only for neighboring countries but for the entire world. This is not about total nuclear destruction or nuclear war. It is about Iran previously trying to respond with force when attacked, but not escalating the conflict. Now, the situation may change.

Iran has been accustomed to living under conditions of war and poverty for years. The current situation is destabilizing the entire region and causing serious economic and energy shocks worldwide. More countries are joining the U.S.-Israeli coalition, which means that Trump will find it much easier to strike devastating blows against Iran. Today, it was announced that Romania has officially permitted the use of its military bases for strikes against Iran.

Consequently, missiles may fly not only towards Iran's closest neighbors but also European countries, which could be considered a full-scale beginning of World War III. The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and only the U.S. dollar may benefit from this, at least for the time being.

I believe that the longer the war with Iran continues, the more the U.S. economy will suffer. At some point, market participants may conclude that the currency of a country actively engaged in military actions is not a "safe haven." Quite the opposite. The question is, what currency should be used for capital? If missiles fly towards EU countries, then the euro is unlikely to be considered a "safe haven." The situation in the Far East is also not very calm. In my opinion, the only way to sustain the current upward trend in both instruments is to keep the status quo in the East. However, this scenario seems less convincing day by day.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's politics and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment could reach the 25 figure. At present, I believe the instrument remains within the global wave 5, and thus I expect price increases in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e may be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now reasonable to consider purchases at targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The global wave 5 can take on a much more extended form than it currently exhibits. I believe that the formation of a corrective set of waves may soon be completed (or may have already been completed), after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can currently recommend looking for opportunities to buy with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, as the upward trend does not appear to be complete.

Key Takeaways from My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in market direction. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.