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Yesterday's news of a rise in U.S. inflation, even within economists' forecasts, became a problem for all risk assets, including the euro and the British pound, while providing strong support for the U.S. dollar. Given that many fear a sharp price spike by the end of March, primarily due to the war between the U.S. and Israel with Iran and the rapid increase in energy prices, the rise in February inflation figures has already sent alarming signals for the American economy and the Fed.
Both the overall and core Consumer Price Indexes showed the following results: the overall index increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, while the index excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.2%. The largest monthly increase in energy prices partially explains the faster growth of the overall index. Year-on-year, the Consumer Price Index figures demonstrated, in essence, the most moderate inflation since the sharp rise in the cost of living began in the spring of 2021. The overall CPI grew by 2.4%, slightly above last year's low, while the core CPI remained at 2.5%, matching the lowest rate since 2021.
This situation presents a difficult choice for the Federal Reserve. On one hand, tightening monetary policy (raising interest rates) could help curb inflation; however, it risks slowing the already fragile economic growth and increasing pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, maintaining a loose policy could further accelerate inflation, undermining consumers' purchasing power and creating long-term stability issues for the economy.
As I noted earlier, the released figures reflect the price situation before the war with Iran, which led to sharp increases in gasoline and other energy prices. Even taking this into account, elements of the February Consumer Price Index suggest a monthly growth rate of at least 0.4% for the core index—a rate incompatible with the Federal Reserve's target of 2% year-on-year.
In this context, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is not surprising. An additional risk factor is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which directly affects oil prices and, consequently, the global economy.
Currently, buyers need to decide how to reclaim the 1.1555 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1585. From there, they could aim for 1.1615, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the 1.1645 high. If the trading instrument declines to around 1.1510, I expect major buyers to take serious action. If none are present, it would be prudent to wait for a re-test of the low at 1.1470 or to open long positions from 1.1430.
For the pound, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. Only then can they target 1.3420, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3450. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control over 1.3350. If this is achieved, breaking this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, potentially dropping GBP/USD to a low of 1.3315, with prospects of reaching 1.3285.
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