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Do you have a plan, Mr. Trump? I fear not. According to a Bloomberg insider, the White House no longer aims to destroy Iran's nuclear program or change the regime in that country. A victory will be deemed as the destruction of as many weapons and planes as possible. But what if Tehran resumes production of these after the conflict ends? More bombings! The endless war makes EUR/USD thrash about like a tiger in a cage.
Donald Trump has no plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. president is used to threatening his opponents; however, this time, it may not work. Instead of complying and allowing tankers to pass through the world's main oil artery, Iran continues to attack them. Yesterday, three vessels sank, and today, two more were attacked. Fear is mounting.
As a result, the IEA describes events in the Middle East as the biggest shock to the oil market in history. According to its estimates, global supplies in March will decrease by 8 million barrels per day, or a total of 250 million barrels. This means that the 400 million barrels released from strategic reserves will last less than two months. It's no surprise that Brent prices are rising, along with the U.S. dollar.
Reversal risks for the U.S. currency have reached their highest levels since 2022. This means that the cost of insurance against a strengthening USD index is higher than for its decline. The futures market expects continued declines in EUR/USD. However, any good news becomes a reason to buy the pair. Indeed, if the armed conflict in the Middle East ceases, investors will immediately start dumping the U.S. dollar.
Is the fact that the White House has no plan good news? I think so. Donald Trump is looking for any opportunities to end the war. Billions of dollars from taxpayers' pockets are being spent on it, and the potential acceleration of inflation is becoming another argument against the president's political ratings. If this continues, Republicans are likely to lose the midterm elections. It's necessary to resolve the issue with Iran. But Iran is not backing down. What to do? Claim victory!
Such a victory will surely turn out to be a Pyrrhic one. Tehran will recover, and the movement through the Strait of Hormuz will likely not return to pre-war levels for a long time. Oil prices will remain high, leading to stagflation in the global economy. It seems that if the White House has no plan, it must come up with one urgently.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is testing key support in the form of a pivot level at 1.1540. Success for the bears in this endeavor will allow them to increase shorts formed from 1.1640 and above in the main currency pair. A renewal of the local minimum at 1.1505 will catalyze a continuation of the decline towards 1.1450 and 1.1350. Conversely, a rebound from 1.1540 will increase the risks of forming a reversal pattern 1-2-3 and encourage consideration of short-term buying.
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