20.03.202606:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 20? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, except for the Producer Price Index in Germany, which is not significant for the market. Thus, throughout the day, both currency pairs may experience corrections after yesterday's growth. The main concern is that the downward correction does not transition into a new downward trend. Geopolitical factors are losing influence over traders, but that does not mean traders are ignoring them. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the condition of energy resources globally is critical.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among the fundamental events on Friday. The day is completely empty. However, traders are not lacking information from central banks. Over the past two days, we learned that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to resume cutting the key rate before December 2026. The European Central Bank does not plan to change its monetary policy parameters in 2026, while the Bank of England is even prepared to tighten if necessary. All three central banks anticipate inflationary pressures due to the Middle Eastern conflict, which has triggered unprecedented rises in oil and gas prices. Thus, all regulatory goals are temporarily pushed to the background, with the focus entirely on inflation.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, the market may experience any movements, as the vector of events in the Middle East can shift in any direction at any time. The euro can be traded today from the areas of 1.1527-1.1531 and 1.1584-1.1591, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3403-1.3407. We still see no grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics); however, the war in the Middle East may continue to support the dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.