20.03.202612:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

The investment image of the eurozone is beginning to raise concerns among ECB policymakers amid the rapid rise in oil and natural gas prices, which is increasing pressure on energy costs. Under these conditions, the regulator kept the deposit rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, leaving all three instruments unchanged.

In its monetary policy statement, the ECB acknowledged that "the war in the Middle East... will have a noticeable impact on short-term inflation through rising energy prices." At the same time, the regulator emphasized that "its medium-term consequences will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how rising energy prices affect consumer indices and overall economic dynamics."

At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the eurozone has sufficient resilience, and that low inflation means current policy is "fairly well prepared" for external shocks. She added that the central bank follows a "meeting-by-meeting" approach, stressing that the path of interest rates is determined by incoming data and its interpretation.

During the European trading session on Friday, several ECB officials commented on the current state and outlook for inflation, as well as the possible path of interest rates.

ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that under current conditions, "a deterioration in medium-term inflation prospects and a sustained rise in inflation expectations is quite possible, which would likely require tighter monetary policy." In his view, the ECB may need to raise rates as early as April if price outlooks worsen.

Meanwhile, ECB member and Bank of Spain Governor Jos? Luis Escriv? noted that "it has been extremely difficult to accurately assess the impact of rising energy prices on inflation dynamics and the real economy." He reminded that ECB decisions are based on the medium-term inflation outlook, and in some cases inflation may ease gradually without the need for immediate rate adjustments. According to him, the situation remains highly uncertain and unstable, and the regulator will need to continue analyzing a large volume of data.

It appears that the comments from ECB officials had a moderately positive impact on the euro (EUR). The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 9-day EMA, or the intraday low around 1.1547, to nearly the round level of 1.1600, but is still trading about 0.15% below Thursday's close.

Additional data showed that new home sales in January declined by 17.6% compared to the previous month, following a 1.7% drop in December, mainly due to snowstorms that dampened activity in the housing market.

Against this backdrop, U.S. Treasury yields are declining after a sharp rise driven by macroeconomic data releases. Nevertheless, according to Prime Market Terminal data, financial markets do not expect Federal Reserve rate cuts during 2026, with the first change likely only in the first half of 2027.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart EUR/USD is trading below the round level of 1.1600. The short-term trend is moderately bearish, as the price remains slightly below key simple moving averages and below its medium-term balance zone. Oscillators are negative, confirming weakness among bulls. Bulls need to break above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs to gain control.