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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new decline. The pair also consolidated below the 1.3341–1.3352 level, which allows for expectations of movement toward the 1.3199–1.3214 level. A consolidation above 1.3341–1.3352 would favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward 1.3437–1.3465.
The wave situation has started to shift toward a "bullish" outlook, but already today or tomorrow bears may regain the upper hand. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the latest downward wave could break the previous low as early as today. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, while geopolitics has given bears a clear advantage. The war in Iran remains the main driver of U.S. dollar strength, and this week bears may launch a new offensive despite the outcomes of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings.
There was no significant news flow on Friday, but the range of emotions following Thursday remained very mixed. The Bank of England showed readiness to raise interest rates as early as April, and inflation forecasts point to acceleration in the second and third quarters. However, bullish traders only made a move on Thursday, indicating that geopolitics outweighs monetary policy in the eyes of the market. Donald Trump may already today order strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, which would trigger a new escalation in the Middle East. Oil and gas prices would rise further, along with fertilizer prices, putting the world at risk not only of an energy crisis but also a food crisis. Food prices could surge dramatically this year, yet this does not stop Washington from continuing its threats toward Tehran. For traders, the only option is to flee risk in favor of the U.S. dollar. The pound is falling despite Andrew Bailey's hawkish rhetoric, while the dollar is rising despite Jerome Powell's more dovish tone, and economic data is currently being ignored.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, which so far provides little significance. The bearish trend may be ending, but a new escalation in the Middle East could lead to another bearish push toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3145. A consolidation above the 1.3369–1.3391 level would allow traders to expect a renewed rise toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3786. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators at the moment.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the past reporting week, although overall bears still hold full control of the market. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,977, while short positions decreased by 23,659. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 44,000 vs. 110,000.
In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical context. I still do not fully believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the Middle East conflict.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer and more stable currency compared to the dollar, with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, a correction began within the bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict started intensifying almost daily. Geopolitics remains the primary driver of U.S. dollar strength.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
March 23 contains no significant economic events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be minimal.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Sell positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3465 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3341–1.3352 and 1.3214. These trades can remain open. Buy positions become possible after a close above 1.3341–1.3352, targeting 1.3437–1.3465.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.2104–1.3786 on the 4-hour chart.
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