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The war in Iran has been ongoing for three weeks, and Donald Trump clearly expected a quicker resolution to this conflict. The leader of the White House doesn't like to waste money and time, like a true businessman. Playing the long game isn't in the Republican leader's nature. Trump is accustomed to taking what he needs quickly so that the opponent does not have time to react. This was the case in Venezuela and almost all of the "trade partners" of the US in 2025. The Republican simply imposed astronomical tariffs in bulk, and then, when money began pouring into the treasury from Americans' pockets, he was willing to negotiate trade. Time worked for Trump, but in the case of Iran, it is working against him.
The longer the war in the Middle East drags on, the more Trump's political approval ratings fall. Currently, only 35% of Americans approve of US military actions in the Middle East. The economic satisfaction rating fluctuates between 30% and 35%. With such "fantastically high" ratings, the president's party has never won midterm elections. Trump probably understands this. He may have already resigned himself to losing the House of Representatives. However, in the current situation, he needs to save what he can.
If the Senate remains in Republican hands, Trump will still be able to lead the country as he sees fit. He will now have to negotiate with the Democrats instead of issuing decrees in bulk without consulting Congress. Decisions will become more complicated, but America is starting to rise against Trump. For example, the Supreme Court not only ruled the tariffs imposed by Trump in 2025 as illegal but also demonstrated the victory of law over the personal desires of the president. Even the fact that Trump immediately imposed tariffs based on other laws is still a victory for democracy.
Now, Trump is limited by tariffs to 150 days and a 15% rate. After 150 days, Congress must allow Trump to extend the tariffs; after November 2026, Congress may become half Democratic. Is it reasonable to expect that the Democrats will favor Trump's initiatives? Therefore, the occupant of the White House urgently needs to save his political ratings. He needs to end the war with Iran, preferably with an unconditional victory for the US, and he needs to lower oil and gasoline prices; otherwise, Americans will vote for those politicians who previously ensured them a tariff-free life and low fuel prices.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward section of the trend (bottom picture), while in the short term, it has completed the construction of a downward wave set. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, in the next week or two, my readers can expect a rise in quotes, with targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745, which correspond to the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci. Further movements of the instrument fully depend on events in the Middle East.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become very complex and difficult to read. Now we see a seven-wave downward structure on the charts, which is undoubtedly not that. Most likely, there is elongation or complication within one of the waves. However, this does not make the wave layout clearer. If the wave picture has once been complicated to an unreadable form, it may be complicated several more times. Therefore, I believe it is best to rely on the wave layout of the EUR/USD instrument, which appears much clearer. Consequently, I also expect the pound to rise, with targets around 1.3541 and 1.3620. Moreover, one should not forget about the geopolitical factor, which could send both instruments into a new decline at any moment.
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