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The GBP/USD pair also did not show any notable volatility on Wednesday, although, unlike in the EU or the US, an important report was published in the UK. However, as we warned, traders paid almost no attention to it. The consumer price index in Great Britain remained at 3% for February, while the core consumer price index rose to 3.2%. A slight acceleration in inflation ahead of a significant surge (in March). Nevertheless, traders could have reacted by buying the British pound, as any rise in inflation would bring the Bank of England closer to tightening monetary policy. But the market once again demonstrated that it is only interested in geopolitical news. The macroeconomic background continues to be ignored. Currently, there is no news regarding escalation or de-escalation, so the market is essentially stagnant.
On the 5-minute timeframe, five trading signals were formed on Wednesday; however, the price constantly changed direction throughout the day, leading to the formation of false signals. On the hourly timeframe, there is currently no flat movement, nor a pronounced trend. This represents the most dangerous type of movement, as traders cannot trade like in a flat or in a trend. As a result, novice traders may have executed the first two signals in the 1.3403-1.3407 range, neither of which yielded a profit.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has begun forming an upward trend, but this trend is very weak and uncertain. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so in 2026, we expect a resumption of the global upward trend from 2025, which could bring the pair to at least 1.4000. However, for this to happen, geopolitical tensions worldwide need to start easing.
On Thursday, novice traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3319-1.3331 area, with a target of 1.3259-1.3267. A bounce from the area of 1.3319-1.3331 will allow for the opening of long positions with a target of 1.3403-1.3407.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading is currently possible at the levels of 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US, so the market's attention will once again be fully focused on geopolitics. If no significant news on this topic emerges, strange, low-volatility movements may be observed throughout the day.
Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.
Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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