30.03.202612:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 30th

Today, only the Australian dollar was traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I traded the euro and the British pound using the Momentum strategy, but there were no significant directional moves in those pairs.

Good data on mortgage lending in the UK supported the pound during the first half of the day. Positive economic indicators, reflecting the recovery of consumer demand and the construction sector, indicate growing confidence in the British economy. The increase in mortgage lending, in particular, points to activity in the real estate market—especially in a high-interest-rate environment. This not only stimulates the construction sector but also supports job creation. However, it should be noted that current dynamics are only a partial indicator, and further behavior of the pound will depend on many other factors, including Bank of England interest rate decisions, developments in global markets, and geopolitical events.

The second half of the day is expected to be quiet: no U.S. statistical reports are scheduled. As a result, all market attention will be focused on speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and FOMC member John Williams. Their statements may set the tone for further market developments. In the context of elevated inflation and ongoing discussions about the future path of interest rates, any hints of a tighter monetary policy by the Fed could have a noticeable positive effect on the U.S. dollar.

If Powell and Williams demonstrate resolve in combating price pressures, emphasize the need to maintain high rates for a longer period, or even hint at possible rate hikes, this could serve as a catalyst for another wave of U.S. dollar strength.

In the case of strong statistics, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1505, targeting 1.1525 and 1.1555;
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1485, targeting 1.1445 and 1.1414;

GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3250, targeting 1.3280 and 1.3310;
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3225, targeting 1.3200 and 1.3175;

USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 159.75, targeting 159.95 and 160.20;
• Sell on a breakout below 159.50, targeting 159.30 and 159.10;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1513, on a pullback below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1473, on a pullback above this level;

GBP/USD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3266, on a pullback below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3215, on a pullback above this level;

AUD/USD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6885, on a pullback below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6839, on a pullback above this level;

USD/CAD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3929, on a pullback below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3896, on a pullback above this level.