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The price of gold has risen, supported by several factors amid a complex geopolitical and economic situation.
Yesterday's comments from US Federal Reserve representatives weakened market expectations of an imminent interest rate increase. Traditionally, lower real rates make holding non-yielding assets, such as gold, more attractive, as alternative investments, like bonds, become less profitable. This creates favorable conditions for rising prices of the precious metal.
At the same time, reports of US President Donald Trump's readiness to end military operations against Iran, even amidst significant uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, also supported gold. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are among the key drivers of rising precious metal prices, which investors view as a safe haven during periods of instability. Statements about a potential de-escalation of the conflict, even with caveats, help mitigate concerns, which, in turn, support demand for gold as a protective asset.
On Tuesday, the price of gold jumped by 2.4% to $4600 per ounce before partially reversing the gain.
Earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that long-term inflation expectations in the US appear to be under control, despite the war-induced spike in oil prices that has increased inflationary pressure and led to forecasts of interest rate hikes. According to him, the central bank's policy is well-positioned to wait and see what happens next. The drop in Treasury yields following Powell's comments added further momentum to gold.
Currently, traders anticipate at least one rate cut before the end of the year. This suggests that the market has not yet transitioned to pricing in an economic downturn. Gold is likely to remain under pressure, and rapid recovery opportunities are currently limited.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4591. This will allow targeting $4647, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $4708 area. If gold declines, bears will attempt to take control at $4531. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a severe blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4481, with a prospect of reaching $4432.
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