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On Thursday, during the North American session, the British pound declined following US President Donald Trump's statements that the conflict would continue for at least 2-3 weeks, which intensified tensions. Pressure on the pound intensified amid geopolitical risks and a rapid rise in oil prices, negatively affecting market sentiment.
In his address on Wednesday evening, Trump stated that the US mission in Iran would be completed "very soon" but warned Tehran that if negotiations failed, the US was prepared to strike energy infrastructure and oil facilities. The president also emphasized that the United States is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, urging allies to unite to ensure its openness, given the global economy's critical dependence on Middle Eastern energy resources.
Against this backdrop, the dollar strengthened, global stock markets declined, and oil prices spiked sharply.
The GBP/USD pair reached a two-day low of 1.3181, then partially recovered to 1.3217. Some improvement in the pound's dynamics followed reports from IRNA that Iran and Oman were developing a joint protocol to regulate movement in the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily reduced market tensions.
In the economic block, US data was mixed. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 fell to 202,000, which was better than the forecast (212,000) and below the previous week's figure (215,000). At the same time, the Challenger report indicated that companies cut 60,620 jobs in March, which is 24% higher than a year ago.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan noted that the Fed has sufficient tools to respond to economic uncertainty, emphasizing readiness to adjust interest rates if necessary. She also acknowledged that escalating conflict in the Middle East could negatively affect global economic prospects.
On Friday, markets in the UK and the US will be closed due to Good Friday; however, the publication of employment data in the US non-farm sector will continue. An increase of 60,000 in employment is expected following a February decline of 92,000, while the unemployment rate is estimated to remain at 4.4%.
The Fed's positive outlook underscores the strengthening of the US dollar, aligning with the prevailing pressure on the pair.
From a technical standpoint, the pair maintains a moderately bearish short-term trend, as prices trade below key simple moving averages (SMAs). The oscillators are negative. The nearest support is forming around 1.3220, with initial resistance now observed around 1.3330, where the 20-day SMA is located.
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